…How not to be Irrelevant
hatever advised the skipping of United Nations General assembly in New York City last week by President Yar'Adua (for the second time in a row) must have been ill-conceived and myopic. For over 60 years now, United Nations general assembly has evolved as that high octane annual talk-fest and networking arena for heads of state. Where they meet, greet and rub minds even for brief moments. Not that major decisions or achievements are guaranteed, but countries and leaders with the right focus can use the platform to articulate their message and further long-term strategic interest.
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So unless a country is contemplating to cease existence as an entity or prefers to become a pariah state, I don't believe its wise for any president to ignore his peers. How then can Nigeria complain of not being invited to G-20 summit or clamor for permanent seat in the United Nations whilst choosing to shun such an important forum that is vital to its international and/or regional prominence?
As long as Nigeria continues to function in the comity of nations it is vital to her interest not only to be well-represented but actively make its voice heard in advancing issues for serious consideration in regional and global affairs - for instance, promoting coordinated counter-offensive against arms and oil smuggling syndicates (no less nefarious than Somali pirates) operating along its coastal waters in Niger Delta, which continues to stoke unrest in the region thereby undermining her economic interests and political integrity should be high on the agenda.
The role of Nigeria in international politics is indeed very closely entwined with situation at home and current pressing problems, nay finding lasting solution to Niger Delta debacle. This is not something that can be left to chance; hence I'd say that if Yar Adua dropped the ball by not attending the UN general assembly, he deserves some credit for even attempting to tackle the problem by declaring amnesty for embattled militants.
…The Window of Amnesty
With less than two weeks left before expiration of the amnesty, the question in most minds is what will happen after now? I wish anyone knew. Personally I keep my fingers crossed while viewing the situation with cautious optimism - my best wish is that whatever happens the situation shouldn't be left to deteriorate to the state we saw in the last 2-3 years. When in 2006 alone over 200 people (including expatriates and indigenes) were taken hostage in the Niger Delta region, ushering an era of incessant kidnapping-for-ransom around the country.
The amnesty offers indeed an auspicious moment that Nigeria must cease to set the stage for meaningful dialogue and concrete action to address prolonged neglect in the area. I am often befuddled that successive administrations didn’t consider the threat serious enough or simply turned a blind eye to the impending stalemate that was brewing in the region. Not until the situation hit such alarming heights did it become policy priority that deserved decisive step to stem further decline.
The wave of attacks against petroleum industry assets has indeed hit Nigeria hard in the pocket. This has unleashed crippling effect on oil production, sending output to 20-year low early in 2009, from the highs of over 2,3 million barrels per day. Not even the hugely successful Bonny Liquefied Natural Gas Plant (BLNG) was immune from the threat. Its primary track for feedstock through the Cawthorne Channel was constantly within crossfire just as gas supply to thermal electric plants was also impacted. The net effect is an estimated loss of over $12 billion dollars, shut-in of over 20% of production, with incalculable multiplier effect on the economy resulting from epileptic power supply.
…Mend Spoke and Was Heard
It is fair to say the dominant militant group in the region Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) has made a loud and far-reaching statement, as is witnessable by release of their leader Henry Okah and recent visit by Defense Minister Godwin Abbey and his team to militant camps. In the face of such seeming dilemma, I make bold to say that the government has put its best foot forward by offering general amnesty rather than pursue risky and widely unpopular military option.
It is different matter how the militants and all keen observers perceive that giant stride. Not everyone believes it can work, which is understandable, however there’s no iota of doubt in mind that such move will have lasting benefit to ordinary folks in the Niger Delta and the country at large if executed fair and square to logical conclusion.
Already within period of the amnesty repentant militants have submitted significant cache of ammunition, oil production is gradually rebounding as Nigeria’s balance of payment improves to continuously prop up the local currency. In the last few weeks Naira exchange rate has gained ground against major foreign currencies. Recent reports show economic recovery of most countries in Asia, Europe and even US with Africa/Nigeria still lagging.
In my estimation, at the heart of Nigeria’s economic recovery and ability to tackle myriad of impending problems (including threat of renewed religious uprising, wave of kidnapping/insecurity sweeping across the country, abysmal electricity supply as well as banking industry declining confidence and comatose stock market) lie peace in Niger Delta. Nigeria can hardly afford for too long, the current spate of misfortunes on every front that it is experiencing today
The message is quite clear and succinct, even critics will agree that agitation for resource-control, equity and justice by Niger Delta people is genuine struggle, especially when governments at various levels have woefully failed the citizens. But most people will rightly assert that, the fight has been overtaken by criminality that emerged over recent years partly through prodding of politicians and fostered by poverty, joblessness and widespread economic deprivation. Against that background, amnesty can prove to be necessary and well-timed window to initiate candid dialogue on one hand and concrete action on the second front - assuming government is serious and its policy-measures are well-tailored to bring lasting peace and succor in the region.
…Naysayers Abound, But Continue It Must
Along that path numerous obstacles remain, not least is the vociferous opposition of interest groups and individuals that may have been feeding off the crisis or who would prefer to see conditions worsen in other to achieve one selfish motive or another. The amnesty should be only but an aspect of broader, long-term socio-economic and political package that is required to achieve sustainable progress. The imminent issue of economic empowerment must be followed with massive and sustained infrastructure development that will generate jobs and political restructuring.
Enacting new oil industry legislation that takes into account interest of host communities and states, including but not limited to allocating portion of revenue directly to localities where the resources is derived must be part of the deal. Addressing and instituting strong environmental policies and regulatory measures will help mitigate pollution and ecological degradations of the past. There is no reason why oil companies can't be held to the same standard of practice in the Niger Delta as in New Orleans, Gulf of Mexico, North Sea or the Middle East where unethical practices could result to serious sanctions against such companies.
The key players at the negotiating table should be the Federal/State Governments and oil companies on one hand and host communities/their representatives and leaders on the other hand with oversight function vested on civic society and international agencies. Finding common ground for all the stakeholders will be tough but not impossible task in the weeks and months ahead.
…Means to An End
The amnesty therefore should be viewed as “means to an end”. With such prevailing state of despair and elections drawing close there’s no saying what the idle herds of youths will metamorphose into. Experience has shown that where legitimate options are not available, politicians remain ready to deploy them to help run campaigns and rig elections.
While there’s time, offering tangible alternatives and meaningful livelihood, including resettlement and employment opportunities, education/training and skills acquisition programs for youths, social amenities and ameliorating poor living conditions for communities is inevitable. States like Rivers are showing good roadmap in this regard by recent training of over 300 repentant militants and offering automatic employment to about 20 of them. Private sector should be supported to thrive and add steam to the effort.
Unless such laudable programs are implemented in concerted effort on large-scale around all Niger Delta states soon, there’s no saying where things will lead if hostilities is allowed to resume in the foreseeable future. One thing is for sure – if Yar Adua gets this amnesty thing right, he will deserve resounding applause and much of his operational summersaults and foreign policy blunders might easily be forgiven as he goes down in history as president that set the Niger Delta peace-process rolling.
