n October 28, 2008, Dr. Malcolm E. Fabiyi posted a feature article in the Nigeriaworld titled "A Rational Decisions Theory Explanation for why Corruption Thrives in Nigeria". He described the theory as "a standard approach used by economists and other social scientists to explain why individuals make the decisions that they do." In applying the same concept, the learned one explained "why corruption thrives in Nigeria" suggesting "some critical areas where public policy efforts should be focused" to achieve that remedial goal. I found the article very interesting in the main for its intellectual merit. It makes sense when discussions on the many issues that face Nigeria are elevated beyond the pedestrian. Nigeria has become used to hearing the voices of local champs to the extent the noise level has grown to become a nuisance. Reading from learned Nigerians who take time to apply their minds towards solving problems is surely constructive and heart-warming. The hope is that the owners of Nigeria would find time to comprehend and be informed enough to cultivate any new penchant for rational thinking, albeit rational decision-making.

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Before getting back to Dr. Fabiyi's article, I would like to take a moment to comment on the recent news that the entire Southeast has been declared a disaster area by the federal government. That news came before the village of Awgwu in Enugu State experienced a landslide, what has been described as an "earth tremor" by the media. The entire community watched most of its homestead and farmlands disappear, submerged into oblivion in a twinkle burying some of its residents in situ. Awgwu is not alone. Parts of Anambra, Imo, Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Delta, Cross River, Rivers and Edo states have for decades been exposed to persistently creepy and consuming monster, gully erosion.

A few of us patrons of the Nigeriaworld saw this problem long ago as an impending danger and threat to life and property. I recall writing about the sad experience of the local villagers of Osazuwa along Benin-Auchi road in Edo state; they returned from their farms one evening and found the land beneath their homes shifted on a steep sliding slope, ultimately submerged several hundreds of feet down the fringe. They not only lost personal and family holdings but also their identity and character as a community. The same article drew attention to the perennial nightmares along Ore-Benin Road, Lagos-Ibadan Express Road, Enugu-Aba-Port Harcourt, Onitsha-Owerri-Aba, Onitsha-Enugu, and many other freeways connecting Arochukwu, Ikom, Ogoja and parts of Akwa-Ibom. I also recall Dr. Abati's one time trip to Uyo, on a conference of members of the Nigerian Union of Journalists, how and why he arrived so late in the night.

The primary hub of slope instability has been traced to two key fault lines: the Benin Hinge Line, a sub-linear feature connecting Abeokuta, parts of Auchi, Sabongida Ora, and Okene in former Kwara. The other fault zone is traceable from parts of Enugu, Afikpo, Item, Abriba, and Arochukwu and further down into Akwa-Ibom and Cross River. In a plan view, the two geologic structures form a broad inverted "V" loosely defining the transition between the sedimentary rocks of the greater Niger Delta and the hard rocks of the Nigerian Basement Complex. Further south the coastline takes the shape of another broad-based basin with its fringes stretched out connecting Lagos on the west and Calabar on the east.

In between this delta-basin and the inverted "V" structures, most of the surface streams flow in a north-south direction headed into the Atlantic Ocean. The intriguing phenomenon is that these streams run parallel to sub-parallel to one another, ultimately joining the coastline at a nearly 90 degree angle. They are essentially normal to the coastline which means that run-off and run-on are inherently prone to rapid sequence and successions of mass wasting with enormous bed load. The limits of Nigeria's Active Belt of Major Structural Instability seem to be defined as indentified, the entire land-space and geohydrologic facies north of the coastal front and south of the inverted "V" fault zone.

All key infrastructural sign-posts within this belt are being destroyed as quickly as they are put up. It is within this same area one finds the largest gullies and trenches, road networks washed out to bare red earth; the farmlands have also been stripped of their top soil, hardly any good enough to produce yam, cassava or cocoyam, the staple food for many. Nigeria's bread basket is clearly dwindling and shrinking with every rainy season. Something extremely strange far beyond the-business-as-usual mentality must be happening; suddenly the resource comptrollers must have experienced a midnight awakening, perhaps a new religion in readiness for the impending Armageddon. Thus, the Southeast is now getting some attention to qualifies as a disaster area? What then does the government know at this moment that it did not know before? It is exactly what happens when one lives long enough to bear witness. But then what is next? Perhaps "we shall understand it better bye and bye".

Every government in power whether federal or state, has always ignored the problem, preferring to be in denial. Each Minister or Commissioner for Environment has always found comfort in talking about what is commonly described in Nigeria as "Ecological Disaster". Discussions begin and end with opening ceremonies of workshops and conferences rehashing the theories of the problem, as it was in the beginning and ever shall be. The so-called experts like to talk and preach. In the end nothing happens; but money is spent, contracts are awarded to ghost companies and individuals based on sketchy proposals and plans, often mere projections by bureaucrats handed over from one administration to another. Meantime, misery continues to spread, spinning the wheels of misfortune community after community, one village disaster after another. The local government chairman shows up at the scene in coat and tie or "Agbada" (overflowing outfit) only to make more speeches before whoever cares to listen. The photo-op continues when legislators from Abuja eventually arrive with their news crew on an observation tour of the disaster area and for which they receive "bush" allowance. It is all about talking, more talks, too many talks and not enough of tangible positive action. With this new mission, it would not be long before the government inaugurates the "Ecological Commission of Nigeria"; expect the members to be sworn in by Mr. President before the next rain. The commission is likely to be headed by one party big wig who graduated with B.Sc. (Hon.) in Geography from the local University in 1975. Fund would be allocated by government; the members of the commission would first buy four-wheel drive vehicles to enable them maneuver the treacherous landscape and dangerous terrains of the affected areas. Their follow-up meeting would be arranged somewhere in London, part of a workshop on gully erosion. Thus, the cycle of inaction and mediocrity continues until the next government in power.

In reality Nigeria needs a Consortium of Experts; unfortunately not all the right people are found in the country at this time and those available are not necessarily experienced enough to deal with massive dislocations caused by earth fissures, land subsidence and associated instabilities. For a humid tropical setting, the first step would be to undertake a geohazard analysis to help address location-specific remedial measures. Such an analysis might have to be digitized with known or estimated controls on water levels, soil moisture and information from specific climatic regimen. Incidentally only the Good Lord knows where the major boreholes are located. There is no legal registration for wells drilled and completed anywhere in Nigeria. On the local level, every open space in every village is potentially a cemetery. Thus, rapid erosion and gully-forming events trigger complex land movements powerful enough to exhume dead bodies. Remediation work might have to respect man-made conditions on the ground including temporary resettlement plans to limit exposure and keep the people away from harm. On a regional scale, especially within the fault zones, the use of special "geo-membrane" materials for soil stabilization might be feasible; actual river bank flood control programs might be required to contain urban sprawl and ill-disposed human habitation practice. The combination of best management practices for risk assessment and risk reduction could save lives and protect property on a longer term. In all cases special engineering control s must be undertaken to stabilize the fault zones as herein mentioned to minimize load derivation and reduce the volume and rate of mass waste.

At this point and returning to Dr. Fabiyi's theory, it would be appropriate to ask the question. What drives public policy decisions in Nigeria? If gully erosion problem is only seen as a trend in misfortune befalling the people of Auchi, Ore, Nanka, Awgwu, Olokoro, Arochukwu and Ogoja, the implications for a major calamity would still remain localized, consigned to the altar of an angry god seeking revenge on a wayward community. The concept becomes "if it is not happening in my neighborhood, my backyard, then it is not real". In answering the question, it is perhaps easier to agree on what does not prompt public policy than what really does. Protection of life and property seems far from it. Obviously it is easier for the federal government to declare the Southeast a disaster area. Doing just that is considered a public policy, right? The answer for Nigeria is yes, just as the decision by the same government to establish the Niger Delta Ministry. Let the assumption be that these two and separate decisions are considered and regarded as "Rational" rather than any driven by expediency, akin to fixing band aid to a festering sore; how do they fit into Dr. Fabiyi's theory by intuition?

According to Dr. Fabiyi, Rational Decision with an "Expected Net Benefit" relies on unique "Probability" principles. The frequency of occurrence and the likelihood of occurrence are not necessarily the same but one trumps the other; however they share a common bond by genesis when considered together and given an empirical value, towards defining "Probability". Chances can also mean opportunities; some are favorable while others are not so favorable. Either way, reality and truth would not necessarily undermine evidence if only to prove the likelihood of occurrence. Evidence in that regard becomes a known quantity; what happens and when it happens may depend on situations and circumstances, relevant to evidence but not necessarily evidence. This analysis brings into focus the applicability of Dr. Fabiyi's theory and concept as applicable to the Nigerian situation.

In a typical Nigerian setting, probability is essentially event driven, a situation where reality has a historical perspective in terms of "whatever has happened before". The missing link is always what is lost to the imagination; thus the "likelihood of occurrence" is the glorified futuristic "If". It is always left to the gods to decide when whatever happens, how it happens and the extent and degree of collateral consequences; the ability to push the envelope and "pass the buck" is not necessarily a shared responsibility hence the popular slogan: "God is in control" even if in reality the Nigerian is in-charge. In "the land of no tomorrow" the likelihood of occurrence makes sense only if tomorrow never comes. Thus the shelf lives for such guiding principles for the Nigerian system in culture, ethics, social and political disposition and behavior is very short. Given a system that endures for as long as it lasts, "Probability" is certainly a late comer. In the case of life and death issues, hazards, threat to human health and the environment, decision making process is as always event-driven but essentially reactionary; the choice is a variant starting from the base of nominal census to the curiously epidemiological; it is hardly based on anything rational, especially if the intended outcome has little or no bearing to the choice decision. For clarity, does declaring the Southeast a disaster area solve the problems of gully erosion? The answer is empathically no. Does the announcement of the creation of Niger Delta Ministry stop the human suffering and neglect in the affected areas? The answer again is no. Both decisions are considered rational only because they serve a different purpose in keeping with the intent and purpose of the decision regardless of the outcome and its consequences.

On the individual level, one is not shocked to hear about human tragedies caused by inhalation of fumes (Carbon Monoxide) from portable generators left running overnight in a confined space; in the morning the neighborhood is aroused by cries of death by suffocation. Surely, this sad news has been repeated in several other homes across Nigeria. The rational decision here is also the choice between preventing night marauders from stealing the generator and keeping the home cool for a good-night's sleep. Thus frequency of occurrence just as the likelihood of occurrence is not enough to justify the actions and their consequences. The scenario applies in the case of the petroleum product pipeline bandits; the fires they cause hardly die down before the repeat performance occurs elsewhere along the delivery lines. One would have thought people would learn from the mistakes of others.

Thus, the frequency of occurrence and likelihood of occurrence have nothing to do with the outcome of any action considered rational solely based on the intent of the criminal. On the larger picture, how do these individual situations and circumstances shape or influence the public policy of the controlling authority towards the protection of life and property for the common good? In other words Nigeria is not totally different from its leadership for which rational thinking would be considered relevant in public policy formulation. In the past Nigerians had reasons to believe most national and political considerations and decisions were entirely ethnic-based; to a good measure those reasons still linger. However the emergence of professional charlatans as the ruling elite has tended to obscure the reality of purpose, minimizing whatever dividends are accruable from the choices made by leaders. Otherwise, the North whose military brass ruled Nigeria for over three decades, at least between 1966 and 1999 would have no reasons to complain in 2007 and 2008 about being the most impoverished and "marginalized" compared to the rest of the country. Thus, decisions made by a few supposedly to favor a particular ethnic collective and in the name of the same people ended up benefitting only the decision makers.

In keeping with Dr. Fabiyi's theoretical concept, the cost-benefit analysis has become more relevant in terms of exposing the hidden agenda beyond which ethnic politics would qualify as a rational basis for nation-building. In essence people do what they want to do for any number of reasons, rational or not; it could be that doing so is expedient and possible or the opportunity exists to do so regardless of the consequences of failure. For instance, a Governor Etim who appropriates state funds, committing the same into personal wealth is no less the enemy of the people than Mohammed from Bauchi, member of the Federal Executive Council opposed to sitting an industry in Akwa Ibom. Unfortunately many such decisions are as deliberate as the reasons that make them possible, but certainly not based on any rational thinking for the common good. Thus, it is never the decision but the attendant outcome that determines how rational.

Dr. Fabiyi also provided a prescriptive analysis towards curative measures for corruption. His suggested approach rests on law and order, crime and punishment anchored on strong citizen support, perhaps a reward-based witness protection mechanism. One would have thought Dr. Fabiyi was actually writing about another country but Nigeria. Unfortunately Nigeria is not a country of laws but of class, personalities and controlled power. The recent ordeal of one Miss Uzoma Okere in the hands of shipmen makes the case; she was brutally assaulted, beaten and left half-naked for not yielding in time to "the big man's right of way" for the convoy of a Rear Admiral Harry Arogundade. The navy brass sat comfortably behind his limo as his boys pummeled the young girl. Her offence was being in the right lane at the wrong time. Not too long ago along the same narrow potholed paths in Lagos, the Imo State Governor's convoy chased a woman and her car into the ditch. She had her child strapped in the back seat; again she was lucky to live to tell the story. With the privileged seen to be and acting above the law, the judiciary is only as effective and as good as the system from which it derives its authority to serve a beleaguered society. Law enforcement is arbitrary and selective; when seriously applied it derives its effectiveness or lack thereof through influence of financial reward and favors from controlled power.

Whistleblowers as suggested by Dr. Fabiyi would not live long enough to tell their stories either in a country where "warlordism" has further assumed the status of a territorial base of power with the accruing privileges of a manufactured authority. Anybody, except the privileged super class, can be kidnapped anywhere for the price of a bounty on the orders of a "manufactured higher power". If the whistleblower escapes reprisals by going underground, does he or she also do so with his entire family or with kith and kin in the village? Justice in this instance could be as much retributive as it is distributive where witness protection is essentially non-existent. For that innocent Nigerian, the jungle law is also the law of self-preservation, the key being never witness a crime; to do so means the individual is a dead meat. Crime may be location-specific, punishment and consequences deriving there from may however be jointly and severally applied, spreading far and wide even beyond the limits of one's village. The folks and all and sundry who hardly know their "whistleblower " son is entangled with the law one way or the other, would wake up to a bad dream, a band of armed police. The one misfortune any village would pray not to have is the occupation force of the Nigerian police. By the time it would be over, half of the women folks both married and unmarried would have been assaulted and raped. The Nigerian police do not keep the peace without a collateral damage; there is also no third force to police the police; therefore nothing would happen and life rolls on.

The underlying concern then would not be a case of speculation or any bordering on "Probability" even if the frequency of occurrence and the likelihood of occurrence lack any commonality in provenance. Does it then mean corruption as is known in Nigeria can never be eradicated? The short answer is yes; however it can be managed and minimized only if Nigeria begins to make that "Rational Decision" to embrace "Change" in the age of Obama. The reason for that answer is that bribery and corruption have come to stay to symbolize pleasure. However, the only way such a pleasure remains eternally fulfilling is by living in the moment, enjoying it as long as it lasts. Incidentally, Nigerians live in the moment. The future is now.

To be continued---